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Recent Editions
Risk Channel
North America
Private-equity firms are facing mounting financial pressure as approximately $300bn in corporate loans approach maturity in 2028 and 2029, raising concerns about defaults and investment losses. Around $140bn is due in 2028, followed by $160bn in 2029, with software companies accounting for approximately one-third of the total. Rising interest rates, weaker refinancing conditions, and growing competition from artificial intelligence companies have complicated efforts to extend debt maturities. Approximately 25% of the outstanding loans carry particularly low credit ratings, increasing the risk of defaults and creditor takeovers. Bank of America forecasts that default rates on below-investment-grade corporate loans will double to 4% next year. Private-equity returns have already fallen below 10% from approximately 15% during the low-interest-rate period. Fund managers are increasingly negotiating loan extensions, injecting additional capital, and restructuring company balance sheets to avoid potentially significant losses.
Full Issue
Risk Channel
UK/Europe
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde has announced that she will step down on February 7, 2027, approximately nine months before her eight-year term expires, triggering a leadership succession process amid economic uncertainty and financial market volatility across the eurozone. The announcement came hours before the ECB held its deposit rate at 2.5%, as instability in France’s bond market continued to affect regional borrowing costs. Although no official reason was provided for Lagarde’s early departure, speculation has centred on allowing European leaders to appoint her successor before France’s April 2027 presidential election. Potential candidates include former Bank of Spain Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos, former Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot, and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel.
Full Issue