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Recent Editions
Risk Channel
North America
The IMF has warned that growing dependence on AI investment could expose the global economy to a significant slowdown if the technology fails to meet expectations. Speaking at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, financial leaders highlighted how surging spending on data centers, semiconductors, and related infrastructure is supporting U.S. growth and driving strong Asian exports. However, the IMF's downside scenario suggests that disappointing AI returns could trigger falling investment, declining stock markets, and weaker exports, potentially reducing global economic growth by as much as 1.3 percentage points in 2028. Alternative scenarios suggest AI could deliver substantial productivity gains, although supply constraints might initially increase inflation and interest rates. The IMF also warned that AI-enabled cyberattacks pose growing risks to financial stability. Managing director Kristalina Georgieva cautioned that investors may overestimate AI's immediate benefits, creating the potential for market disruption before longer-term productivity gains materialize.
Full Issue
Risk Channel
UK/Europe
KKR has been formally accused by the European Commission of providing misleading information during the regulatory review of its €22bn acquisition of Telecom Italia’s fixed-line network, which received EU approval in 2024. Following a year-long investigation prompted by complaints from rival operators, regulators allege that KKR misrepresented its ability to change wholesale network access terms, with competitors claiming prices subsequently increased. KKR strongly disputes the allegations, maintaining that its original disclosures were accurate and emphasizing that the charges are preliminary and do not affect the transaction’s existing approval. The US private equity firm could face a fine of up to 1% of its annual global turnover if found to have breached EU rules, with a final decision expected following further proceedings.
Full Issue
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