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Recent Editions
Risk Channel
North America
President Donald Trump has warned that allowing Canada to become an associate member of the European Union could constitute a “hostile act,” threatening to impose significant additional tariffs or restrict U.S. trade with Europe if he believes the move is made with “bad intention.” His comments followed European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s pledge to pursue closer ties with Canada, potentially making it the EU’s first associate member. The warning comes amid escalating U.S.-Canada trade tensions. Trump has ordered restrictions on imports of Canadian dairy products, alcoholic beverages, and motorcycles, while adjusting existing 50% tariffs on other Canadian goods. Trade negotiations between Washington and Ottawa nearly produced an agreement in late August but collapsed at the last minute. Canadian and European officials have meanwhile been discussing associate membership as a way to deepen ties, although both sides have said full Canadian membership in the EU is not an option.
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Risk Channel
UK/Europe
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed working toward making Canada the European Union’s first associate member as both sides seek a significantly deeper economic, security, and technological partnership. Potential areas of cooperation include integrating defence and other critical supply chains, increasing Canadian energy flows to Europe, developing joint cloud and data centres, coordinating on AI and digital rules, and exploring some mutual visa-free travel and work arrangements. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has made closer European ties central to efforts to diversify Canada’s economy away from the US; his government welcomed von der Leyen’s proposal. However, the details remain under discussion, and significant obstacles include EU requirements concerning single-market rules, budget contributions, and freedom of movement, which Canadian officials have indicated they are unwilling to accept in full.
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