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Risk Channel
North America
Geopolitical risks and oil shock are Fed's top worries

The Federal Reserve's latest semi-annual Financial Stability Report cites geopolitical risks and the oil shock precipitated by the war in the Middle East as the top worries of survey respondents; artificial intelligence and private credit have also become prominent concerns. Three-quarters of respondents said geopolitical risks were their top concern; ​the oil shock was cited by 70%. Half of survey respondents identified AI and private credit as potential threats to financial ​stability. The Fed said the risks to financial stability from private credit appear "limited and manageable." 

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Risk Channel
UK/Europe
ECB weighs response to Iran war's impact on inflation

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde has said policymakers face “massive uncertainty” and need “a lot more data” to understand the repercussions of the conflict in the Middle East, and the ECB is carefully considering its response to the war and the impact on inflation to ensure it acts neither prematurely nor too late. “We are constantly torn between the risk of reacting too quickly or the risk of reacting too late, and we have to find the right path to navigate our economies toward that 2% medium term inflation, which is our goal,” she said. Lagarde offered no indication as to whether the ECB will raise interest rates next month, as many expect.

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