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The IMF has raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, from 3.0%, as strong AI investment offsets economic disruption from the Middle East conflict and oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel. Growth is expected to reach 3.4% in 2027, although widening economic disparities and mounting debt threaten stability. The U.S. economy is forecast to grow 2.3%, China 4.5% and India 7.0% in 2026, while several Gulf economies face deep recessions. IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro warned that global economic resilience is "reaching its limits." The IMF also highlighted risks from prolonged energy disruption, higher borrowing costs and disappointing AI returns, urging governments to rebuild fiscal buffers.
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