CFO Slice

US companies are delivering unusually strong earnings growth and increasingly optimistic outlooks, with both earnings growth and the proportion of companies beating analyst expectations close to historic highs. Bespoke Investment Group’s rolling measure of positive versus negative earnings guidance is near a four-year high, with the only stronger recent period occurring during the post-pandemic recovery. Several companies have benefited from the trend. Airbnb beat expectations and raised its guidance, sending its shares up 17%, while Marriott Vacations Worldwide, Starbucks, and Parker-Hannifin also raised their outlooks following stronger-than-expected results. Amrize highlighted demand from major projects, particularly roughly 300 data centers under construction in North America, while Garmin shares climbed 16% after results that benefited from tariff refunds. The positive corporate outlook comes as expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase have declined. Fed funds futures indicate a nearly 70% probability that rates will remain unchanged next month, up from 56% a week earlier, following consumer and producer inflation data.