Firm inflation reading raises likelihood of Fed rate increase |
The Labor Department reported on Friday that U.S. inflation held at 3.4% in August, matching expectations but remaining well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and increasing pressure on policymakers to raise interest rates. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was 2.4% year over year and rose 0.3% from July, prompting markets to price in about a 90% probability of a quarter-point rate increase at the Fed’s meeting next week, up from roughly 70% before the report. Inflationary pressures are being sustained by higher energy costs, tariffs, and the AI-driven technology build-out. Regular gasoline averaged $4.07 a gallon in August, while crude oil has since climbed above $99 a barrel, raising concerns that higher transportation costs could spread across the economy. Economists also estimate that core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred underlying measure, could reach about 3.4% annually, strengthening the case for tighter monetary policy.